National Association of Realtors economist looks at the future of real estate in Summit

While there’s no crystal ball for the future of housing, Lawrence Yun’s predictions might be the next best thing. The National Association of Realtors chief economist and senior vice president of research shared his forecast for Summit County on Wednesday, with job growth as a positive indicator for the market, while low inventory and rising prices weighing in as negatives.

One of the major factors is Denver’s recent booming growth, which he says shows no sign of slowing.

“There are way too many buyers going after far too few properties. Denver and Seattle are just going wild,” he said. “Whatever happens in Denver will come over here.”

With Denver’s population rising exponentially, Summit County is also seeing a larger pool of buyers. However, local housing inventory is still at historic lows, with limited construction in Summit.

“Why is there low inventory in Summit County?” Yun asked. “Because builders are not building.”

Part of the reason behind that, he added, stemmed from state policies that don’t encourage builders to construct. While he forecasted inventory would climb a little bit in the future, it was not by much.

“They will be slowly vamping up production,” he said.

Like many industries in Summit, real estate is seasonal — to an extent. During the winter months, many homeowners will hold onto their properties for short- or long-term rentals but will be ready to put their homes on the market come spring.

This year, however, the market is not seeing the same springtime inventory surge.

“We seem to see listings come, but they’re almost being sold as quickly on the market,“ Summit Association of Realtors board president Tom Harmon said. “Back when I started, it was normal to see 1,700 to 2,000 units on the market. Last time I looked, inventory was almost to 600.”

Resort communities are also faced with a unique problem: limited space. As Summit nears 93 to 94 percent build-out, available land for new properties is shrinking. With Denver at seventh in the nation for population growth, that will likely make for a larger pool of prospective buyers in Summit.

“Those people are going to look to the mountains for recreation,” Harmon added.


LIVING COSTS

What’s driving so many prospective homebuyers to Denver? According to Yun, the key is the cost of living, with increasing costs in San Francisco driving tech workers elsewhere.

“People just can’t afford to live in San Francisco,” he said. “Compared to the prices they were paying, (Denver) is very affordable.”

Of course, Colorado locals would have a different perspective, as they see prices rising. Home costs in the metro area are at a new high, while rural Colorado is not quite back at peak levels.

“Denver has reached a new high, but Summit County has not,” he said. “Hopefully, we will get a delayed reaction from what’s happening in Denver in Summit County.”

Summit’s proximity to the metro area is certainly an advantage in this aspect, compared with other resort towns further west.

Another factor feeding into sales is the local job market. The state as a whole is above average, Yun said, though Denver is doing well. Despite fluctuations due to seasonality, for Summit, the overall trend for new jobs is steadily increasing. READ MORE




Other News

Summit County real estate roundup: October sales slow down for winter season NOVEMBER 2016 NEWSLETTER Shorter shoulder season in Summit boosts sales tax revenue in September OCTOBER 2016 NEWSLETTER September 2016 Market Stats Summit County real estate roundup: September sales continue trend of rising prices Dillon Valley the hot market in Summit County condo sales Density of Frisco townhome development faces resistance What is “high plateau” and what does it mean for the Denver housing market? Record Eisenhower Tunnel visits come with benefits, concerns National Association of Realtors economist looks at the future of real estate in Summit New construction drives Summit County sales tax revenues in April Buyer's Resource Newsletter- June 2016 The 3 biggest challenges that homebuyers face in 2016 Home Buyers: Don’t Wait Forever for The One New to the Neighborhood Slopeside Breckenridge townhomes top February real estate sales Exclusive Buyers Agents Predict Challenges for Buyers in 2016 Summit County real estate sees fewer sales for higher dollars in January Buyer's Resource Newsletter- May 2016 Summit County real estate sales end 2015 on a high note Buyer's Resource Newsletter- March 2016 Powder Paradise...if you can afford the price Buyer's Resource Newsletter- February 2016 Metro Denver housing remains constrained and combustible Summit County real estate sales top $157 million for October Urban Renewal in the Rockies: Silverthorne seals the deal on new developments USA Pro Challenge Returns to Summit County Summit County real estate round-up: August property sales top $119 million Local property owner sells Silverthorne lot for $7.25 million Buyer's Resource Newsletter- September 2015 Real estate sales reach $114.5M thanks to good summer market Buyer's Resource Newsletter- July 2015 Breck on track for strong summer business Buyer's Resource Newsletter- June 2015 Breckenridge's infrastructure, cultural improvements Buyer's Resource Newsletter- May 2015 Buyer's Resource Newsletter- April 2015 Homebuyer Mistakes: 7 to Avoid Making Home-Buying 101 – How to Pick the Right Pros Fannie, Freddie, MBA economists predict interest rate hike in 2015 Summit County lodges break all-time revenue records as economy continues to recover Colorado BBQ Challenge brings Kansas City flavor to the Colorado Rockies Final Shock Hill plot in luxury Breckenridge neighborhood sells for $10.25 million Summit County real estate market notches $75M in April on strength of luxury home sales Summit assessor releases values for all county properties May 1 Summit County affordable housing hit hard by recalculated income index Main Street Station property in Breckenridge sells for $5.6M Denver firm buys Blue River Apartments in Silverthorne for $9.2 million 17 Coolest Towns in America Summit County retail sales edging back to pre-Recession levels $3 million Dercum's Dash home becomes priciest Keystone sale since 2007 Summit County real estate sales reach $83 million in March Colorado home prices rising at fastest rate in country Buyer's Resource Newsletter- February 2015 The Fed’s getting closer to raising rates. How much is up in the air Freddie's 3% Down Payments Start Next Week Denver buyers up their game to be last bidder standing in real estate deals Hot tubs are hot commodities for rentals, homeowners in Summit County 10 reasons the housing market could go ballistic this spring Summit County real esate deals in February top $50 million THE 20 COOLEST TOWNS IN THE US Silverthorne delays approval of contested Maryland Creek Ranch parcel Breckenridge and other mountain towns learn to regulate short-term rentals Summit County welcomes newest craft beer hot spot, The Bakers’ Brewery Summit County real estate sales top $61.7 million in January Can The FHA Fix The First-Time Buyer Gap? $12 million Home Depot land purchase in Silverthorne the year’s biggest real estate deal Will Recreational Marijuana Affect Real Estate? 2014 Market Analysis NAHB: Signs Point to a Robust Year for Housing Uber car service expands to Breckenridge, Vail, Aspen The top-selling new-home neighborhoods and builders in markets most likely to succeed in 2015. Generation Y Prefers Suburban Home Over City Condo Buyer's Resource Newsletter- November 2014 Buyer's Resource Newsletter- July 2014